Club Guarani 3–4 Cerro Porteno: Result & Stats

Club Guarani

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Cerro Porteno

A. Maidana 79'

L. A. Quintana Rodriguez 45' (OG)

I. Ramirez 33'

C. Dominguez 78'

F. Carrizo 70' (pen)

J. Iturbe 31'

S. Araujo 8'

8/16/2025

League #252 · Clausura - 8Estadio Rogelio Livieres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Club Guarani44%

×Draw24%

Cerro Porteno31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club GuaraniExpected goals in this matchCerro Porteno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.33

Club Guarani

1.62

Cerro Porteno

1.33

Club Guarani creates 22% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

1.91

creates per match

1.67

1.00

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Club Guarani

1.91

Cerro Porteno

1.67

allows per match

Club Guarani

1.00

Cerro Porteno

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Guarani+0.00on par

Cerro Porteno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Guarani ↓

Cerro Porteno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Club Guarani or draw

69%

Club Guarani or Cerro Porteno

76%

Draw or Cerro Porteno

56%

Winning margin

Club Guarani wins by 2+

23%

Cerro Porteno wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Club Guarani 1+ goals

80%

Club Guarani 2+ goals

48%

Club Guarani 3+ goals

22%

Cerro Porteno 1+ goals

74%

Cerro Porteno 2+ goals

38%

Cerro Porteno 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Club Guarani (draw refunded)

58%

Cerro Porteno (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Guarani at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Cerro Porteno away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Guarani attack 1.91 + Cerro Porteno defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.62

Cerro Porteno attack 1.67 + Club Guarani defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Club Guarani scores more

44%

level

24%

Cerro Porteno scores more

31%

Club Guarani at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Club Guarani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

S. Araujo

Cerro Porteno · F

7.9

Match Events

8'

S. Araujo

31'

J. Iturbe↳ B. Riveros

33'

I. Ramirez

43'

Alcides Benítez

45'

Federico Carrizo

45'

L. A. Quintana RodriguezOwn goal

46'

T. Servin← L. Martinez

62'

Alcides Barbotte

66'

Ivan Ramirez

68'

Lucas QuintanaPenalty confirmed

70'

F. CarrizoPenalty

71'

W. Mendieta← Jhon Sanchez

71'

R. Torales← A. J. Benitez Cabrera

73'

J. Morel← J. Marcelino

73'

C. Dominguez← J. Iturbe

73'

I. Aliseda← S. Araujo

76'

Agustín Manzur

76'

Cecilio Domínguez

78'

C. Dominguez↳ I. Aliseda

79'

A. Maidana

82'

C. E. Mino Amarilla← S. Zaracho

82'

D. Perez← A. Barbotte

83'

J. Torres← F. Carrizo

83'

R. Gomez← L. Amarilla

88'

William Mendieta

90+7'

Blás Riveros

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubCerro

Overview

49%Possession51%

14Total Shots15

1.21Expected Goals (xG)2.30

3Corners5

16Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots15

7On Target7

3Off Target5

4Blocked3

9Inside Box10

5Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

331Total Passes351

244Accurate Passes271

74%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls16

5Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0