Club Guarani 0–5 Boston River: Result & Stats

Club Guarani

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Boston River

G. Lopez 66', 45'

B. Barcia 50'

J. Gutierrez 42'

F. Rodriguez 25'

5/28/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 6Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Club Guarani48%

×Draw24%

Boston River28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club GuaraniExpected goals in this matchBoston River

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.20

Club Guarani

1.64

Boston River

1.20

Club Guarani creates 37% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.60

creates per match

1.00

1.40

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Club Guarani

1.60

Boston River

1.00

allows per match

Club Guarani

1.40

Boston River

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Guarani+0.00on par

Boston River+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Guarani ↓

Boston River →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Club Guarani or draw

72%

Club Guarani or Boston River

76%

Draw or Boston River

52%

Winning margin

Club Guarani wins by 2+

25%

Boston River wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Club Guarani 1+ goals

81%

Club Guarani 2+ goals

49%

Club Guarani 3+ goals

23%

Boston River 1+ goals

70%

Boston River 2+ goals

34%

Boston River 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Club Guarani (draw refunded)

63%

Boston River (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Guarani at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Boston River away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Guarani attack 1.60 + Boston River defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Boston River attack 1.00 + Club Guarani defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Club Guarani scores more

48%

level

24%

Boston River scores more

28%

Club Guarani at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Club Guarani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

J. Gutierrez

Boston River · F

8.9

Match Events

25'

F. Rodriguez↳ J. Gutierrez

39'

Juan Manuel Gutiérrez

42'

J. Gutierrez↳ F. Rodriguez

45'

G. Lopez↳ A. Amado

46'

A. Maciel← J. Patino Martinez

46'

I. Ramirez← W. Mendieta

46'

A. Maidana← N. Barrientos

46'

A. Maiz← B. Pinatares

50'

B. Barcia

62'

V. Cespedes← R. Torales

66'

G. Lopez↳ J. Gutierrez

69'

A. Anello← F. Rodriguez

69'

F. Noguera← B. Barcia

76'

J. Robatto← A. Silva

76'

F. Munoa← J. Gutierrez

78'

Alexis Cantero

80'

F. Chiappini← L. Lemos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubBoston

Overview

58%Possession42%

13Total Shots13

10Corners6

14Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots13

4On Target7

7Off Target2

2Blocked4

6Inside Box9

7Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

510Total Passes377

415Accurate Passes304

81%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides1

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Club Guarani 0–5 Boston River

Boston River beat Club Guarani 5-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 28, 2025.

Goals: F. Rodriguez (25'), J. Gutierrez (42'), G. Lopez (45', 66'), B. Barcia (50').

Club Guarani controlled possession (58%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Defensores del Chaco in Asuncion.

Club Guarani vs Boston River — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Club Guarani 0–5 Boston River