Boston River 3–3 Club Guarani: Result & Stats

Boston River

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Club Guarani

A. Albarracin 72'

F. Noguera 50'

A. Gonzalez 27'

G. Vargas 90'

F. Fernandez 60'

W. Mendieta 54'

4/1/2025

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 1Estadio Centenario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Boston River48%

×Draw20%

Club Guarani31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boston RiverExpected goals in this matchClub Guarani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.77

Boston River

2.23

Club Guarani

1.77

Boston River creates 26% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

1.71

creates per match

1.25

2.29

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Boston River

1.71

Club Guarani

1.25

allows per match

Boston River

2.29

Club Guarani

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boston River+0.00on par

Club Guarani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston River ↓

Club Guarani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Boston River or draw

69%

Boston River or Club Guarani

80%

Draw or Club Guarani

52%

Winning margin

Boston River wins by 2+

29%

Club Guarani wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Boston River 1+ goals

89%

Boston River 2+ goals

65%

Boston River 3+ goals

38%

Club Guarani 1+ goals

83%

Club Guarani 2+ goals

53%

Club Guarani 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Boston River (draw refunded)

61%

Club Guarani (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston River at home — creates 1.71, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Club Guarani away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston River attack 1.71 + Club Guarani defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.23

Club Guarani attack 1.25 + Boston River defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Boston River scores more

48%

level

20%

Club Guarani scores more

31%

Boston River at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Boston River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

F. Martinez

Boston River · D

8.2

Match Events

27'

A. Gonzalez↳ G. Viera

39'

William Mendieta

50'

F. Noguera↳ M. Vera

53'

F. Dafonte← M. Vera

54'

W. Mendieta↳ L. Martinez

56'

R. Torales← B. Pinatares

60'

F. Fernandez↳ W. Mendieta

69'

A. Albarracin← F. Noguera

69'

V. Adamo← A. Anello

72'

A. Albarracin↳ F. Martinez

73'

A. J. Benitez Cabrera← D. Perez

76'

Alexis Cantero

84'

W. Ibarrola← F. J. Roman Torales

85'

A. Maidana← A. Cantero

85'

A. Pereira← W. Mendieta

87'

A. Silva← G. Viera

87'

M. Gomez← A. Gonzalez

90+4'

Agustín Albarracín

90'

G. Vargas↳ A. Manzur

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BostonClub

Overview

49%Possession51%

18Total Shots8

6Corners1

11Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots8

4On Target5

9Off Target1

5Blocked2

15Inside Box5

3Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

376Total Passes414

301Accurate Passes313

80%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Boston River 3–3 Club Guarani

Boston River and Club Guarani drew 3-3 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 1, 2025.

Goals: A. Gonzalez (27'), F. Noguera (50'), W. Mendieta (54'), F. Fernandez (60'), A. Albarracin (72'), G. Vargas (90').

Club Guarani controlled possession (51%) and registered 8 shots to 18.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario in Montevideo.

Boston River vs Club Guarani — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Boston River 3–3 Club Guarani