Club Destroyers vs Aurora — Primera División 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 26+ matches
Club Destroyers44%
Aurora30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Club Destroyers creates 25% more chances
Season form · 26 home / 130 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Club Destroyers ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Club Destroyers at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 26 matches
Aurora away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.85 · 130 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Club Destroyers attack 1.15 + Aurora defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.50
Aurora attack 1.02 + Club Destroyers defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.20
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Club Destroyers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Club Destroyers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Jorge Wilstermann
The Strongest
Bolívar
San José
Always Ready
Oriente Petrolero
Nacional Potosí
Blooming
Royal PariAurora
Real Potosí
GuabiráClub Destroyers
Sport BoysBolívarThe StrongestNacional PotosíBloomingSan JoséJorge WilstermannOriente PetroleroGuabiráAlways ReadyReal PotosíRoyal PariSport BoysAuroraClub DestroyersIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Club Destroyers host Aurora on Sunday, 22 September 2019 at 19:00. The match is part of the Primera División 2019/2020 season.
Primera División: Club Destroyers 1–0 Aurora
Club Destroyers beat Aurora 1-0 in Primera División on September 22, 2019.
The match was played at Estadio Ramón Aguilera Costas (Santa Cruz de la Sierra).