Aurora 1–0 Club Destroyers: Result & Stats

Aurora

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Club Destroyers

12/25/2019

Primera División · Clausura - 25Estadio Félix Capriles (Cochabamba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Aurora67%

×Draw19%

Club Destroyers14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AuroraExpected goals in this matchClub Destroyers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.89

Aurora

2.21

Club Destroyers

0.89

Aurora creates 148% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 26 away

1.60

creates per match

0.58

1.20

allows per match

2.81

creates per match

Aurora

1.60

Club Destroyers

0.58

allows per match

Aurora

1.20

Club Destroyers

2.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aurora+0.00on par

Club Destroyers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aurora ↓

Club Destroyers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Aurora or draw

86%

Aurora or Club Destroyers

81%

Draw or Club Destroyers

33%

Winning margin

Aurora wins by 2+

43%

Club Destroyers wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Aurora 1+ goals

89%

Aurora 2+ goals

65%

Aurora 3+ goals

38%

Club Destroyers 1+ goals

59%

Club Destroyers 2+ goals

22%

Club Destroyers 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Aurora (draw refunded)

83%

Club Destroyers (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aurora at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.20 · 128 matches

Club Destroyers away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aurora attack 1.60 + Club Destroyers defence 2.81 → ÷2 → 2.21

Club Destroyers attack 0.58 + Aurora defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Aurora scores more

67%

level

19%

Club Destroyers scores more

14%

Aurora at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Aurora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff