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Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Union Comercio — Primera División 2026

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Union Comercio
Union Comercio
1/29/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 1Estadio Los Chankas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas60%
×Draw22%
Union Comercio18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1.85
Union Comercio
0.90

Club Deportivo Los Chankas creates 106% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 74 away

creates per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1.74
Union Comercio
0.81

allows per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0.98
Union Comercio
1.97

finishing

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par
Union Comercio+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Deportivo Los Chankas ↓

Union Comercio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw
82%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas or Union Comercio
78%
Draw or Union Comercio
40%

Winning margin

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+
35%
Union Comercio wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals
84%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals
55%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals
28%
Union Comercio 1+ goals
59%
Union Comercio 2+ goals
23%
Union Comercio 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)
77%
Union Comercio (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.98 · 43 matches

Union Comercio away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.97 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 1.74 + Union Comercio defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.85

Union Comercio attack 0.81 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more
60%
level
22%
Union Comercio scores more
18%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Club Deportivo Los Chankas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Union Comercio

Club Deportivo Los Chankas beat Union Comercio 2-1 in Primera División on January 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Los Chankas in Andahuaylas.