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Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Union Comercio — Segunda División 2026

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Union Comercio
Union Comercio
5/8/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 6Estadio Los Chankas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas50%
×Draw24%
Union Comercio26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1.69
Union Comercio
1.16

Club Deportivo Los Chankas creates 46% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 45 away

creates per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2.27
Union Comercio
1.33

allows per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0.98
Union Comercio
1.11

finishing

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par
Union Comercio+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Deportivo Los Chankas ↓

Union Comercio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw
74%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas or Union Comercio
76%
Draw or Union Comercio
50%

Winning margin

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+
27%
Union Comercio wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals
82%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals
50%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals
24%
Union Comercio 1+ goals
69%
Union Comercio 2+ goals
32%
Union Comercio 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)
65%
Union Comercio (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.98 · 66 matches

Union Comercio away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 2.27 + Union Comercio defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.69

Union Comercio attack 1.33 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more
50%
level
24%
Union Comercio scores more
26%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Club Deportivo Los Chankas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2–1 Union Comercio

Club Deportivo Los Chankas beat Union Comercio 2-1 in Segunda División on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Los Chankas in Andahuaylas.