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Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Carlos Stein — Segunda División 2018

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
5/25/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 2Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas69%
×Draw17%
Carlos Stein14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2.53
Carlos Stein
1.04

Club Deportivo Los Chankas creates 143% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 34 away

creates per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2.27
Carlos Stein
1.09

allows per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0.99
Carlos Stein
2.79

finishing

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par
Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Deportivo Los Chankas ↓

Carlos Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw
86%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas or Carlos Stein
83%
Draw or Carlos Stein
31%

Winning margin

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+
47%
Carlos Stein wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals
92%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals
71%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals
46%
Carlos Stein 1+ goals
65%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
28%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)
83%
Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.99 · 67 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 2.27 + Carlos Stein defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.53

Carlos Stein attack 1.09 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more
69%
level
17%
Carlos Stein scores more
14%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Club Deportivo Los Chankas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Carlos Stein

Club Deportivo Los Chankas and Carlos Stein drew 1-1 in Segunda División on May 25, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao in Callao.