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Carlos Stein vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas — Segunda División 2018

Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
6/16/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 2Estadio Carlos Samamé Cáceres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Carlos Stein33%
×Draw24%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Stein
1.42
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1.66

Club Deportivo Los Chankas creates 17% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 69 away

creates per match

Carlos Stein
1.12
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1.07

allows per match

Carlos Stein
2.24
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1.72

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par
Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

Club Deportivo Los Chankas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw
57%
Carlos Stein or Club Deportivo Los Chankas
76%
Draw or Club Deportivo Los Chankas
67%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+
15%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals
76%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
41%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
17%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals
81%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals
49%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
43%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.24 · 33 matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.12 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.42

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 1.07 + Carlos Stein defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Carlos Stein scores more
33%
level
24%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more
43%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Club Deportivo Los Chankas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carlos Stein vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Club Deportivo Los Chankas beat Carlos Stein 2-0 in Segunda División on June 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Samamé Cáceres in Ferreñafe.