Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2–0 Atletico Grau

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Atletico Grau

C. Pimienta 42'

G. Rizzo 34'

4/17/2026

Primera División · Apertura - 11Estadio Municipal Los Chankas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas52%

×Draw25%

Atletico Grau22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Deportivo Los ChankasExpected goals in this matchAtletico Grau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.92

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.56

Atletico Grau

0.92

Club Deportivo Los Chankas creates 70% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 94 away

1.74

creates per match

0.86

0.98

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.74

Atletico Grau

0.86

allows per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.98

Atletico Grau

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par

Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Deportivo Los Chankas ↓

Atletico Grau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw

78%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or Atletico Grau

75%

Draw or Atletico Grau

48%

Winning margin

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

27%

Atletico Grau wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

79%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

46%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

21%

Atletico Grau 1+ goals

60%

Atletico Grau 2+ goals

23%

Atletico Grau 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

70%

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.98 · 43 matches

Atletico Grau away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.38 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 1.74 + Atletico Grau defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.56

Atletico Grau attack 0.86 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

52%

level

25%

Atletico Grau scores more

22%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Club Deportivo Los Chankas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

G. Rizzo

Club Deportivo Los Chankas · D

8.3

Match Events

34'

G. Rizzo↳ A. Quintana

42'

C. Pimienta

46'

P. de la Cruz← I. Camargo

46'

C. Neira← D. Rodriguez

54'

Carlos Pimienta

62'

Hairo Camacho

64'

N. Delgadillo← E. Franco

71'

M. Torres← J. Quintero

74'

85'

85'

85'

85'

Y. Ruidiaz← A. de la Cruz

89'

Elsar Rodas

90+2'

C. Velarde← K. Sanchez

90+2'

K. Barrios← F. Torres

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubAtletico

Overview

56%Possession44%

15Total Shots11

7Corners2

10Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots11

5On Target5

7Off Target5

3Blocked1

11Inside Box4

4Outside Box7

Passing

56%Possession44%

406Total Passes313

342Accurate Passes246

84%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls17

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2