Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0–1 Atletico Grau

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Grau

F. Oncoy 19'

3/15/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 8Estadio Los Chankas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas52%

×Draw25%

Atletico Grau23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Deportivo Los ChankasExpected goals in this matchAtletico Grau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.95

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.57

Atletico Grau

0.95

Club Deportivo Los Chankas creates 65% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 79 away

1.74

creates per match

0.91

0.98

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.74

Atletico Grau

0.91

allows per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.98

Atletico Grau

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par

Atletico Grau+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Deportivo Los Chankas ↓

Atletico Grau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw

77%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or Atletico Grau

75%

Draw or Atletico Grau

48%

Winning margin

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

27%

Atletico Grau wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

79%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

46%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

21%

Atletico Grau 1+ goals

61%

Atletico Grau 2+ goals

25%

Atletico Grau 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

69%

Atletico Grau (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.98 · 43 matches

Atletico Grau away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.41 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 1.74 + Atletico Grau defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.57

Atletico Grau attack 0.91 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

52%

level

25%

Atletico Grau scores more

23%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Club Deportivo Los Chankas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

P. Álvarez

Atletico Grau · G

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Fernando Cavalier

19'

F. Oncoy↳ E. Rodas

34'

A. Robles← D. Carabaño

58'

Daniel FerreyraCard upgrade

59'

Daniel Ferreyra

63'

G. Sánchez← A. Murialdo

63'

M. Sotillo← J. Manzaneda

63'

D. Temoche← J. Martínez

68'

P. de la Cruz← R. Sandoval

74'

P. García← A. Chávez

77'

J. Reyes← M. da Luz

77'

R. Rojas← J. Rostaing

77'

A. Vásquez← N. Bandiera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubAtletico

Overview

57%Possession43%

19Total Shots9

2.29Expected Goals (xG)0.62

4Corners2

9Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots9

5On Target3

12Off Target4

2Blocked2

16Inside Box7

3Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

404Total Passes343

322Accurate Passes245

80%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls15

1Red Cards1

1Offsides3

Primera División: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0–1 Atletico Grau

Atletico Grau beat Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1-0 in Primera División on March 15, 2024.

Goals: F. Oncoy (19').

Club Deportivo Los Chankas controlled possession (57%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Los Chankas in Andahuaylas.

Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Atletico Grau — Primera División 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0–1 Atletico Grau