Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1–2 Alianza Lima

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Alianza Lima

I. Camargo 73'

Paolo Guerrero 61', 44'

11/5/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 9Estadio Municipal Los Chankas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas39%

×Draw29%

Alianza Lima31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Deportivo Los ChankasExpected goals in this matchAlianza Lima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.99

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.15

Alianza Lima

0.99

Club Deportivo Los Chankas creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

1.48

creates per match

1.00

0.99

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.48

Alianza Lima

1.00

allows per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.99

Alianza Lima

0.82

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.44scores more

Alianza Lima-0.33scores less

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Deportivo Los Chankas ↓

Alianza Lima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw

69%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or Alianza Lima

71%

Draw or Alianza Lima

61%

Winning margin

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

16%

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

68%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

32%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

11%

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

63%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

26%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

56%

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.99 · 13 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.82 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 1.48 + Alianza Lima defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.15

Alianza Lima attack 1.00 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

39%

level

29%

Alianza Lima scores more

31%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Club Deportivo Los Chankas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

Paolo Guerrero

Alianza Lima · F

8.5

Match Events

31'

Eryc Castillo

32'

José Miguel Manzaneda

44'

Paolo Guerrero↳ J. Castillo

45+2'

Ayrthon Quintana

59'

G. Gentile← K. Quevedo

61'

Paolo Guerrero↳ R. Lagos

63'

Carlos Pimienta

69'

I. Camargo← J. Palomino

69'

A. Quiroz← E. Mogollon

73'

I. Camargo↳ P. Bueno

74'

Paolo Guerrero

75'

G. Chavez← E. Castillo

81'

H. Barcos← Paolo Guerrero

81'

J. Archimbaud← P. Ceppelini

84'

Ayrthon Quintana

84'

Ayrthon Quintana

90+2'

Jesús Castillo

90+1'

G. Santiago← J. Manzaneda

90+2'

B. Rivero← F. Torres

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubAlianza

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots7

1Corners2

10Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots7

3On Target4

5Off Target2

3Blocked1

5Inside Box3

6Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

352Total Passes371

277Accurate Passes308

79%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls15

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1