Club Deportivo Los Chankas 0–1 Alianza Lima

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza Lima

Pablo Sabbag 81'

8/24/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 9Estadio Los Chankas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas39%

×Draw29%

Alianza Lima31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Deportivo Los ChankasExpected goals in this matchAlianza Lima

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.99

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.15

Alianza Lima

0.99

Club Deportivo Los Chankas creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

1.48

creates per match

1.00

0.99

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.48

Alianza Lima

1.00

allows per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.99

Alianza Lima

0.82

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.44scores more

Alianza Lima-0.33scores less

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Deportivo Los Chankas ↓

Alianza Lima →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw

69%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or Alianza Lima

71%

Draw or Alianza Lima

61%

Winning margin

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

16%

Alianza Lima wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

68%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

32%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

11%

Alianza Lima 1+ goals

63%

Alianza Lima 2+ goals

26%

Alianza Lima 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

56%

Alianza Lima (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.99 · 13 matches

Alianza Lima away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.82 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 1.48 + Alianza Lima defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.15

Alianza Lima attack 1.00 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

39%

level

29%

Alianza Lima scores more

31%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Club Deportivo Los Chankas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Pablo Sabbag

Alianza Lima · F

8.0

Match Events

15'

Ángel Ledesma

46'

J. Castillo← M. Succar

47'

Carlos Zambrano

57'

Marlon RuidíasGoal cancelled

70'

G. Sánchez← O. Takeuchi

76'

J. D´Arrigo← K. Quevedo

77'

Gonzalo Sanchez

81'

Pablo Sabbag↳ M. Huamán

83'

A. Fuentes← M. Huamán

86'

A. Murialdo← M. Ruidías

89'

D. Temoche← J. Manzaneda

90+2'

Diego Carabaño

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubAlianza

Overview

55%Possession45%

8Total Shots18

4Corners5

12Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots18

0On Target8

6Off Target7

2Blocked3

3Inside Box9

5Outside Box9

Passing

55%Possession45%

347Total Passes290

284Accurate Passes215

82%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

6Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

3Offsides2