Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2–0 Alianza Atletico

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alianza Atletico

A. Robles 90+3'

Á. Ledesma 81'

5/19/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 16Estadio Los Chankas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas55%

×Draw24%

Alianza Atletico21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Deportivo Los ChankasExpected goals in this matchAlianza Atletico

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.94

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.68

Alianza Atletico

0.94

Club Deportivo Los Chankas creates 79% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 93 away

1.74

creates per match

0.89

0.98

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.74

Alianza Atletico

0.89

allows per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.98

Alianza Atletico

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par

Alianza Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Deportivo Los Chankas ↓

Alianza Atletico →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw

79%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or Alianza Atletico

76%

Draw or Alianza Atletico

45%

Winning margin

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

30%

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

81%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

50%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

24%

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

61%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

24%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

72%

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.98 · 43 matches

Alianza Atletico away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.61 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 1.74 + Alianza Atletico defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.68

Alianza Atletico attack 0.89 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

55%

level

24%

Alianza Atletico scores more

21%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Club Deportivo Los Chankas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

D. Ferreyra

Club Deportivo Los Chankas · G

7.6

Match Events

25'

Adrián Fernández

38'

Carlos Gamarra

44'

Eric Tovo

56'

G. Sánchez← A. Chávez

61'

José Miguel Manzaneda

64'

A. Robles← M. Ruidías

72'

A. Murialdo← A. Casquete

74'

A. Perleche← J. Mendieta

81'

Á. Ledesma↳ C. Gamarra

85'

S. Rebagliati← H. Lupú

86'

R. Castro← S. Arias

90+6'

José Villegas

90+3'

A. Robles

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClubAlianza

Overview

65%Possession35%

8Total Shots11

0.70Expected Goals (xG)0.54

6Corners7

9Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots11

3On Target4

5Off Target6

0Blocked1

5Inside Box4

3Outside Box7

Passing

65%Possession35%

363Total Passes197

264Accurate Passes114

73%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2