Alianza Atletico 1–0 Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Alianza Atletico

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

R. Espinosa 13'

10/28/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 16Estadio Campeones del '36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Alianza Atletico52%

×Draw26%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza AtleticoExpected goals in this matchClub Deportivo Los Chankas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.93

Alianza Atletico

1.55

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.93

Alianza Atletico creates 67% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

1.10

creates per match

0.92

0.94

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Alianza Atletico

1.10

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

0.92

allows per match

Alianza Atletico

0.94

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

2.01

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

Alianza Atletico-0.30scores less

Club Deportivo Los Chankas-0.47scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Atletico ↓

Club Deportivo Los Chankas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Alianza Atletico or draw

77%

Alianza Atletico or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

74%

Draw or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

48%

Winning margin

Alianza Atletico wins by 2+

27%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Alianza Atletico 1+ goals

79%

Alianza Atletico 2+ goals

46%

Alianza Atletico 3+ goals

20%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

61%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

24%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Alianza Atletico (draw refunded)

70%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Atletico at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.01 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Atletico attack 1.10 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.55

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 0.92 + Alianza Atletico defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Alianza Atletico scores more

52%

level

26%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

23%

Alianza Atletico at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Alianza Atletico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Sotillo

Club Deportivo Los Chankas · G

7.5

Match Events

2'

Ederson Mogollón

13'

R. Espinosa↳ J. Mendieta

15'

Renato EspinosaGoal confirmed

46'

A. Milesi← J. Mendieta

59'

Adrián Fernández

59'

S. Arias← A. Fernández

63'

C. López← A. Casquete

63'

A. Quintana← E. Mogollón

65'

Cristian Mejia

68'

S. Fernández← R. Castro

76'

Christian Vasquez

78'

G. Sánchez← O. Takeuchi

78'

D. Carabaño← C. Mejía

79'

José Luján

81'

J. de la Cruz← J. del Castillo

81'

G. Larios← R. Espinosa

83'

D. Temoche← A. Robles

87'

Carlos Gamarra

88'

Diego Carabaño

90+4'

José De la Cruz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaClub

Overview

50%Possession50%

8Total Shots6

2Corners2

21Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots6

6On Target2

2Off Target4

0Blocked0

6Inside Box4

2Outside Box2

Passing

50%Possession50%

295Total Passes293

218Accurate Passes225

74%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

21Fouls17

3Yellow Cards5

3Offsides2