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Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs Alfredo Salinas — Segunda División 2018

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Alfredo Salinas
Alfredo Salinas
8/29/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 22Estadio Monumental Condebamba (Abancay)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas76%
×Draw15%
Alfredo Salinas9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2.49
Alfredo Salinas
0.71

Club Deportivo Los Chankas creates 251% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 14 away

creates per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2.27
Alfredo Salinas
0.43

allows per match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0.99
Alfredo Salinas
2.71

finishing

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par
Alfredo Salinas+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Deportivo Los Chankas ↓

Alfredo Salinas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Club Deportivo Los Chankas or draw
91%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas or Alfredo Salinas
85%
Draw or Alfredo Salinas
24%

Winning margin

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+
53%
Alfredo Salinas wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals
92%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals
71%
Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals
45%
Alfredo Salinas 1+ goals
51%
Alfredo Salinas 2+ goals
16%
Alfredo Salinas 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)
90%
Alfredo Salinas (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.99 · 67 matches

Alfredo Salinas away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 2.27 + Alfredo Salinas defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.49

Alfredo Salinas attack 0.43 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more
76%
level
15%
Alfredo Salinas scores more
9%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Club Deportivo Los Chankas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3–0 Alfredo Salinas

Club Deportivo Los Chankas beat Alfredo Salinas 3-0 in Segunda División on August 29, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Condebamba (Abancay).