Alfredo Salinas 1–3 Club Deportivo Los Chankas

Alfredo Salinas

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

5/20/2018

Segunda División · Round 7Estadio Municipal de Espinar (Espinar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Alfredo Salinas38%

×Draw24%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alfredo SalinasExpected goals in this matchClub Deportivo Los Chankas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

Alfredo Salinas

1.54

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 69 away

1.36

creates per match

1.07

2.00

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Alfredo Salinas

1.36

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.07

allows per match

Alfredo Salinas

2.00

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alfredo Salinas+0.00on par

Club Deportivo Los Chankas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alfredo Salinas ↓

Club Deportivo Los Chankas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Alfredo Salinas or draw

62%

Alfredo Salinas or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

76%

Draw or Club Deportivo Los Chankas

62%

Winning margin

Alfredo Salinas wins by 2+

18%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Alfredo Salinas 1+ goals

79%

Alfredo Salinas 2+ goals

45%

Alfredo Salinas 3+ goals

20%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 1+ goals

79%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2+ goals

45%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Alfredo Salinas (draw refunded)

50%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alfredo Salinas at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

Club Deportivo Los Chankas away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.72 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alfredo Salinas attack 1.36 + Club Deportivo Los Chankas defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.54

Club Deportivo Los Chankas attack 1.07 + Alfredo Salinas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Alfredo Salinas scores more

38%

level

24%

Club Deportivo Los Chankas scores more

38%

Alfredo Salinas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Alfredo Salinas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff