Club Brugge W 4–1 Charleroi W: Result & Stats

Club Brugge W

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Charleroi W

9/10/2022

Super League Women · Round 4Gemeentelijk Sportcentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Club Brugge W66%

×Draw18%

Charleroi W16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Brugge WExpected goals in this matchCharleroi W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.13

Club Brugge W

2.48

Charleroi W

1.13

Club Brugge W creates 119% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 52 away

1.89

creates per match

0.63

1.62

allows per match

3.06

creates per match

Club Brugge W

1.89

Charleroi W

0.63

allows per match

Club Brugge W

1.62

Charleroi W

3.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Brugge W+0.00on par

Charleroi W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Brugge W ↓

Charleroi W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Club Brugge W or draw

84%

Club Brugge W or Charleroi W

82%

Draw or Charleroi W

34%

Winning margin

Club Brugge W wins by 2+

44%

Charleroi W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Club Brugge W 1+ goals

92%

Club Brugge W 2+ goals

70%

Club Brugge W 3+ goals

44%

Charleroi W 1+ goals

68%

Charleroi W 2+ goals

31%

Charleroi W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Club Brugge W (draw refunded)

81%

Charleroi W (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Brugge W at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.62 · 92 matches

Charleroi W away — creates 0.63, concedes 3.06 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Brugge W attack 1.89 + Charleroi W defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.48

Charleroi W attack 0.63 + Club Brugge W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Club Brugge W scores more

66%

level

18%

Charleroi W scores more

16%

Club Brugge W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Club Brugge W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff