Charleroi W 0–0 Club Brugge W: Result & Stats

Charleroi W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Club Brugge W

9/9/2023

Super League Women · Round 3Stade du Pays de Charleroi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Charleroi W24%

×Draw21%

Club Brugge W55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Charleroi WExpected goals in this matchClub Brugge W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

2.04

Charleroi W

1.29

Club Brugge W

2.04

Club Brugge W creates 58% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 88 away

0.79

creates per match

1.51

2.58

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Charleroi W

0.79

Club Brugge W

1.51

allows per match

Charleroi W

2.58

Club Brugge W

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charleroi W+0.00on par

Club Brugge W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charleroi W ↓

Club Brugge W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Charleroi W or draw

45%

Charleroi W or Club Brugge W

79%

Draw or Club Brugge W

76%

Winning margin

Charleroi W wins by 2+

10%

Club Brugge W wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Charleroi W 1+ goals

72%

Charleroi W 2+ goals

37%

Charleroi W 3+ goals

14%

Club Brugge W 1+ goals

87%

Club Brugge W 2+ goals

60%

Club Brugge W 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Charleroi W (draw refunded)

31%

Club Brugge W (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charleroi W at home — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 52 matches

Club Brugge W away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.78 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charleroi W attack 0.79 + Club Brugge W defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.29

Club Brugge W attack 1.51 + Charleroi W defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Charleroi W scores more

24%

level

21%

Club Brugge W scores more

55%

Club Brugge W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Club Brugge W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff