Club Brugge KV 1–1 Beşiktaş: Result & Stats

Club Brugge KV

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Beşiktaş

9/21/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 1Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Club Brugge KV45%

×Draw23%

Beşiktaş31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Brugge KVExpected goals in this matchBeşiktaş

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.40

Club Brugge KV

1.73

Beşiktaş

1.40

Club Brugge KV creates 24% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

2.33

creates per match

2.13

0.67

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Club Brugge KV

2.33

Beşiktaş

2.13

allows per match

Club Brugge KV

0.67

Beşiktaş

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Brugge KV+0.00on par

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Brugge KV ↓

Beşiktaş →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Club Brugge KV or draw

69%

Club Brugge KV or Beşiktaş

77%

Draw or Beşiktaş

55%

Winning margin

Club Brugge KV wins by 2+

24%

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Club Brugge KV 1+ goals

82%

Club Brugge KV 2+ goals

52%

Club Brugge KV 3+ goals

25%

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

75%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

41%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)

59%

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Brugge KV at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Brugge KV attack 2.33 + Beşiktaş defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.73

Beşiktaş attack 2.13 + Club Brugge KV defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Club Brugge KV scores more

45%

level

23%

Beşiktaş scores more

31%

Club Brugge KV at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Club Brugge KV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff