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Beşiktaş vs Club Brugge KV — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Club Brugge KV
Club Brugge KV
11/30/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 5Tüpraş Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Beşiktaş22%
×Draw21%
Club Brugge KV57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beşiktaş
1.25
Club Brugge KV
2.10

Club Brugge KV creates 68% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Beşiktaş
1.50
Club Brugge KV
2.33

allows per match

Beşiktaş
1.88
Club Brugge KV
1.00

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par
Club Brugge KV+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Club Brugge KV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw
43%
Beşiktaş or Club Brugge KV
79%
Draw or Club Brugge KV
78%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+
9%
Club Brugge KV wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals
71%
Beşiktaş 2+ goals
36%
Beşiktaş 3+ goals
13%
Club Brugge KV 1+ goals
88%
Club Brugge KV 2+ goals
62%
Club Brugge KV 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)
28%
Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Club Brugge KV away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 1.50 + Club Brugge KV defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Club Brugge KV attack 2.33 + Beşiktaş defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Beşiktaş scores more
22%
level
21%
Club Brugge KV scores more
57%

Club Brugge KV at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Club Brugge KV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Beşiktaş vs Club Brugge KV

Club Brugge KV beat Beşiktaş 5-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on November 30, 2023.

The match was played at Tüpraş Stadyumu in İstanbul.