Club Brugge KV 7–0 AS Eupen: Result & Stats

Club Brugge KV

FT

7 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

AS Eupen

4/23/2023

Jupiler Pro League · Round 34Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Club Brugge KV65%

×Draw20%

AS Eupen15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Brugge KVExpected goals in this matchAS Eupen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.93

Club Brugge KV

2.13

AS Eupen

0.93

Club Brugge KV creates 129% more chances

Season form · 155 home / 99 away

2.30

creates per match

0.96

0.90

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Club Brugge KV

2.30

AS Eupen

0.96

allows per match

Club Brugge KV

0.90

AS Eupen

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Brugge KV+0.00on par

AS Eupen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Brugge KV ↓

AS Eupen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Club Brugge KV or draw

85%

Club Brugge KV or AS Eupen

80%

Draw or AS Eupen

35%

Winning margin

Club Brugge KV wins by 2+

41%

AS Eupen wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Club Brugge KV 1+ goals

88%

Club Brugge KV 2+ goals

63%

Club Brugge KV 3+ goals

35%

AS Eupen 1+ goals

61%

AS Eupen 2+ goals

24%

AS Eupen 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)

81%

AS Eupen (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Brugge KV at home — creates 2.30, concedes 0.90 · 155 matches

AS Eupen away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.97 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Brugge KV attack 2.30 + AS Eupen defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.13

AS Eupen attack 0.96 + Club Brugge KV defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Club Brugge KV scores more

65%

level

20%

AS Eupen scores more

15%

Club Brugge KV at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Club Brugge KV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff