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AS Eupen vs Club Brugge KV — Jupiler Pro League 2018

AS Eupen
AS Eupen
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Club Brugge KV
Club Brugge KV
8/13/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 3Kehrwegstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

AS Eupen24%
×Draw23%
Club Brugge KV52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Eupen
1.12
Club Brugge KV
1.77

Club Brugge KV creates 58% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 156 away

creates per match

AS Eupen
1.19
Club Brugge KV
1.81

allows per match

AS Eupen
1.73
Club Brugge KV
1.05

finishing

AS Eupen+0.00on par
Club Brugge KV+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Eupen ↓

Club Brugge KV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

AS Eupen or draw
48%
AS Eupen or Club Brugge KV
77%
Draw or Club Brugge KV
76%

Winning margin

AS Eupen wins by 2+
9%
Club Brugge KV wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

AS Eupen 1+ goals
67%
AS Eupen 2+ goals
31%
AS Eupen 3+ goals
10%
Club Brugge KV 1+ goals
83%
Club Brugge KV 2+ goals
53%
Club Brugge KV 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

AS Eupen (draw refunded)
31%
Club Brugge KV (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Eupen at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.73 · 98 matches

Club Brugge KV away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.05 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Eupen attack 1.19 + Club Brugge KV defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.12

Club Brugge KV attack 1.81 + AS Eupen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

AS Eupen scores more
24%
level
23%
Club Brugge KV scores more
52%

Club Brugge KV at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Club Brugge KV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Eupen vs Club Brugge KV

Club Brugge KV beat AS Eupen 5-0 in Jupiler Pro League on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Kehrwegstadion in Eupen.