Club Atlético Güemes 0–1 Arsenal Sarandi

Club Atlético Güemes

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Arsenal Sarandi

6/23/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 20Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Club Atlético Güemes46%

×Draw30%

Arsenal Sarandi24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Atlético GüemesExpected goals in this matchArsenal Sarandi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.77

Club Atlético Güemes

1.19

Arsenal Sarandi

0.77

Club Atlético Güemes creates 55% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 49 away

0.98

creates per match

0.71

0.83

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Club Atlético Güemes

0.98

Arsenal Sarandi

0.71

allows per match

Club Atlético Güemes

0.83

Arsenal Sarandi

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Atlético Güemes+0.00on par

Arsenal Sarandi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Atlético Güemes ↓

Arsenal Sarandi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Club Atlético Güemes or draw

76%

Club Atlético Güemes or Arsenal Sarandi

70%

Draw or Arsenal Sarandi

54%

Winning margin

Club Atlético Güemes wins by 2+

20%

Arsenal Sarandi wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Club Atlético Güemes 1+ goals

70%

Club Atlético Güemes 2+ goals

33%

Club Atlético Güemes 3+ goals

12%

Arsenal Sarandi 1+ goals

54%

Arsenal Sarandi 2+ goals

18%

Arsenal Sarandi 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Club Atlético Güemes (draw refunded)

66%

Arsenal Sarandi (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Atlético Güemes at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.83 · 100 matches

Arsenal Sarandi away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.39 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Atlético Güemes attack 0.98 + Arsenal Sarandi defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Arsenal Sarandi attack 0.71 + Club Atlético Güemes defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Club Atlético Güemes scores more

46%

level

30%

Arsenal Sarandi scores more

24%

Club Atlético Güemes at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Club Atlético Güemes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff