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Arsenal Sarandi vs Club Atlético Güemes — Primera Nacional 2026

Arsenal Sarandi
Arsenal Sarandi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Club Atlético Güemes
Club Atlético Güemes
2/4/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 1Estadio Florencio Solá

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Arsenal Sarandi47%
×Draw29%
Club Atlético Güemes23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Sarandi
1.25
Club Atlético Güemes
0.78

Arsenal Sarandi creates 60% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 98 away

creates per match

Arsenal Sarandi
1.27
Club Atlético Güemes
0.85

allows per match

Arsenal Sarandi
0.71
Club Atlético Güemes
1.22

finishing

Arsenal Sarandi+0.00on par
Club Atlético Güemes+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Sarandi ↓

Club Atlético Güemes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Arsenal Sarandi or draw
77%
Arsenal Sarandi or Club Atlético Güemes
71%
Draw or Club Atlético Güemes
53%

Winning margin

Arsenal Sarandi wins by 2+
22%
Club Atlético Güemes wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Arsenal Sarandi 1+ goals
71%
Arsenal Sarandi 2+ goals
36%
Arsenal Sarandi 3+ goals
13%
Club Atlético Güemes 1+ goals
54%
Club Atlético Güemes 2+ goals
18%
Club Atlético Güemes 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Sarandi (draw refunded)
67%
Club Atlético Güemes (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Sarandi at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.71 · 48 matches

Club Atlético Güemes away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.22 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Sarandi attack 1.27 + Club Atlético Güemes defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Club Atlético Güemes attack 0.85 + Arsenal Sarandi defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Arsenal Sarandi scores more
47%
level
29%
Club Atlético Güemes scores more
23%

Arsenal Sarandi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arsenal Sarandi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Arsenal Sarandi 1–1 Club Atlético Güemes

Arsenal Sarandi and Club Atlético Güemes drew 1-1 in Primera Nacional on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Florencio Solá in Lomas de Zamora, Provincia de Buenos Aires.