Clodiense 2–0 Bassano Virtus: Result & Stats

Clodiense

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bassano Virtus

4/7/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 30Stadio Aldo e Dino Ballarin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Clodiense46%

×Draw30%

Bassano Virtus24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ClodienseExpected goals in this matchBassano Virtus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.79

Clodiense

1.21

Bassano Virtus

0.79

Clodiense creates 53% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 53 away

1.49

creates per match

0.92

0.65

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Clodiense

1.49

Bassano Virtus

0.92

allows per match

Clodiense

0.65

Bassano Virtus

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clodiense+0.00on par

Bassano Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clodiense ↓

Bassano Virtus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Clodiense or draw

76%

Clodiense or Bassano Virtus

70%

Draw or Bassano Virtus

54%

Winning margin

Clodiense wins by 2+

20%

Bassano Virtus wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Clodiense 1+ goals

70%

Clodiense 2+ goals

34%

Clodiense 3+ goals

12%

Bassano Virtus 1+ goals

55%

Bassano Virtus 2+ goals

19%

Bassano Virtus 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Clodiense (draw refunded)

66%

Bassano Virtus (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clodiense at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.65 · 82 matches

Bassano Virtus away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clodiense attack 1.49 + Bassano Virtus defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.21

Bassano Virtus attack 0.92 + Clodiense defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Clodiense scores more

46%

level

30%

Bassano Virtus scores more

24%

Clodiense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Clodiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff