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Bassano Virtus vs Clodiense — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Bassano Virtus
Bassano Virtus
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Clodiense
Clodiense
1/11/2026Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 19Stadio Rino Mercante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Bassano Virtus35%
×Draw29%
Clodiense36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bassano Virtus
1.13
Clodiense
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 82 away

creates per match

Bassano Virtus
1.30
Clodiense
1.44

allows per match

Bassano Virtus
0.83
Clodiense
0.95

finishing

Bassano Virtus+0.00on par
Clodiense+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bassano Virtus ↓

Clodiense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bassano Virtus or draw
64%
Bassano Virtus or Clodiense
71%
Draw or Clodiense
65%

Winning margin

Bassano Virtus wins by 2+
14%
Clodiense wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bassano Virtus 1+ goals
68%
Bassano Virtus 2+ goals
31%
Bassano Virtus 3+ goals
11%
Clodiense 1+ goals
68%
Clodiense 2+ goals
32%
Clodiense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bassano Virtus (draw refunded)
50%
Clodiense (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bassano Virtus at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.83 · 53 matches

Clodiense away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.95 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bassano Virtus attack 1.30 + Clodiense defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.13

Clodiense attack 1.44 + Bassano Virtus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bassano Virtus scores more
35%
level
29%
Clodiense scores more
36%

Clodiense at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Clodiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Bassano Virtus 1–3 Clodiense

Clodiense beat Bassano Virtus 3-1 in Serie D - Girone C on January 11, 2026.

The match was played at Stadio Rino Mercante in Bassano del Grappa.