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Cliftonville W vs Glentoran BU W — Premiership Women 2025

Cliftonville W
Cliftonville W
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Glentoran BU W
Glentoran BU W
10/6/2024Premiership WomenPremiership Women · Round 17Solitude

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Cliftonville W43%
×Draw19%
Glentoran BU W38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cliftonville W
2.54
Glentoran BU W
2.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cliftonville W
3.79
Glentoran BU W
4.00

allows per match

Cliftonville W
0.74
Glentoran BU W
1.29

finishing

Cliftonville W+0.00on par
Glentoran BU W+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cliftonville W ↓

Glentoran BU W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Cliftonville W or draw
62%
Cliftonville W or Glentoran BU W
81%
Draw or Glentoran BU W
57%

Winning margin

Cliftonville W wins by 2+
26%
Glentoran BU W wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Cliftonville W 1+ goals
92%
Cliftonville W 2+ goals
72%
Cliftonville W 3+ goals
46%
Glentoran BU W 1+ goals
91%
Glentoran BU W 2+ goals
68%
Glentoran BU W 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Cliftonville W (draw refunded)
53%
Glentoran BU W (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cliftonville W at home — creates 3.79, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Glentoran BU W away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cliftonville W attack 3.79 + Glentoran BU W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 2.54

Glentoran BU W attack 4.00 + Cliftonville W defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cliftonville W scores more
43%
level
19%
Glentoran BU W scores more
38%

Cliftonville W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cliftonville W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership Women: Cliftonville W 6–0 Glentoran BU W

Cliftonville W beat Glentoran BU W 6-0 in Premiership Women on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Solitude in Belfast.