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Clermont Foot vs Caen — Ligue 2 2018

Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Caen
Caen
8/22/2020Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 1Stade Gabriel Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Clermont Foot45%
×Draw27%
Caen29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clermont Foot
1.42
Caen
1.08

Clermont Foot creates 31% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 107 away

creates per match

Clermont Foot
1.31
Caen
1.12

allows per match

Clermont Foot
1.03
Caen
1.52

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par
Caen+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Caen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw
71%
Clermont Foot or Caen
73%
Draw or Caen
55%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+
22%
Caen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals
76%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
41%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
17%
Caen 1+ goals
66%
Caen 2+ goals
29%
Caen 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
61%
Caen (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

Caen away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.31 + Caen defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

Caen attack 1.12 + Clermont Foot defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Clermont Foot scores more
45%
level
27%
Caen scores more
29%

Clermont Foot at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
A. DesmasClermont FootClermont Foot · G
8.2

Match Events

18'
A. Gonçalves← A. Beka Beka
67'
M. Bayo← J. Allevinah
69'
A. Traore← J. Deminguet
70'
J. Dossou← J. Berthomier
80'
S. Samed← C. Gomis
80'
J. Iglesias← J. Tell
83'
B. Jeannot← N. Gioacchini
83'
H. Vandermersch← K. Nsona

Possession

59%Clermont

Shots

12Clermont

Pass accuracy

53%Clermont

Statistics

ClermontCaen
Overview
59%Possession41%
12Total Shots9
6Corners7
9Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots9
3On Target4
5Off Target1
4Blocked4
3Inside Box6
9Outside Box3
Passing
59%Possession41%
504Total Passes326
414Accurate Passes239
82%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls13
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Clermont Foot vs Caen

Clermont Foot and Caen drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on August 22, 2020.

Clermont Foot controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Clermont-Ferrand.