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Caen vs Clermont Foot — Ligue 2 2018

Caen
Caen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
Y. Diaby 89'
1/3/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 17Stade Michel d'Ornano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Caen41%
×Draw29%
Clermont Foot30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caen
1.21
Clermont Foot
0.98

Caen creates 23% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 98 away

creates per match

Caen
1.26
Clermont Foot
0.99

allows per match

Caen
0.98
Clermont Foot
1.16

finishing

Caen+0.00on par
Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caen ↓

Clermont Foot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Caen or draw
70%
Caen or Clermont Foot
71%
Draw or Clermont Foot
59%

Winning margin

Caen wins by 2+
18%
Clermont Foot wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Caen 1+ goals
70%
Caen 2+ goals
34%
Caen 3+ goals
12%
Clermont Foot 1+ goals
62%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
26%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Caen (draw refunded)
58%
Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caen at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.98 · 107 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caen attack 1.26 + Clermont Foot defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Clermont Foot attack 0.99 + Caen defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Caen scores more
41%
level
29%
Clermont Foot scores more
30%

Caen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Caen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
M. N'DiayeClermont FootClermont Foot · G
8.0

Match Events

35'
Lorenzo Rajot
39'
Maïdine Douane
52'
Didí Gaucho
56'
G. Tomé← E. Ntim
70'
G. Kyeremeh← T. Gomis
71'
Y. Diaby← T. Diagouraga
71'
M. Baaloudj← M. Douane
80'
Y. Armougom← M. Bassouamina
82'
I. Najim← V. Henry
82'
L. Sy← B. Brahimi
84'
Habib Keita
89'
Y. Diaby↳ M. Baaloudj

Possession

58%Caen

Shots

10Caen

Pass accuracy

51%Caen

Statistics

CaenClermont
Overview
58%Possession42%
10Total Shots12
4Corners4
14Fouls16
Shots
10Total Shots12
6On Target6
3Off Target4
1Blocked2
7Inside Box10
3Outside Box2
Passing
58%Possession42%
525Total Passes384
451Accurate Passes318
86%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
Discipline
14Fouls16
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides6

Match Recap: Caen vs Clermont Foot

Clermont Foot beat Caen 1-0 in Ligue 2 on January 3, 2025.

Goals: Y. Diaby (89').

Caen controlled possession (58%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stade Michel d'Ornano in Caen.