Clermont Foot 1–2 Boulogne: Result & Stats

Clermont Foot

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Boulogne

F. Diédhiou 73'

J. Vercruysse 70'

T. Averlant 55'

5/25/2025

Ligue 2 · Relegation RoundStade Gabriel-Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Clermont Foot43%

×Draw28%

Boulogne29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Clermont FootExpected goals in this matchBoulogne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.00

Clermont Foot

1.30

Boulogne

1.00

Clermont Foot creates 30% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 28 away

1.31

creates per match

1.00

1.01

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Clermont Foot

1.31

Boulogne

1.00

allows per match

Clermont Foot

1.01

Boulogne

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Boulogne+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Boulogne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw

71%

Clermont Foot or Boulogne

72%

Draw or Boulogne

57%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

20%

Boulogne wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

73%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

37%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

14%

Boulogne 1+ goals

63%

Boulogne 2+ goals

26%

Boulogne 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

60%

Boulogne (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.01 · 89 matches

Boulogne away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.31 + Boulogne defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.30

Boulogne attack 1.00 + Clermont Foot defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Clermont Foot scores more

43%

level

28%

Boulogne scores more

29%

Clermont Foot at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

F. Diédhiou

Clermont Foot · F

7.9

Match Events

18'

25'

35'

43'

46'

M. Bassouamina← Y. Bellache

46'

Y. Koré← I. MBahia

55'

T. Averlant↳ T. Rambaud

61'

61'

70'

70'

73'

F. Diédhiou↳ C. Konaté

77'

Nathan Zohoré

81'

H. Touré← D. Thiam

81'

A. Pinot← T. Epailly

85'

A. Baala← T. Averlant

85'

S. Gourville← E. Dabo

87'

I. Coulibaly← M. Bassouamina

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ClermontBoulogne

Overview

46%Possession54%

9Total Shots12

3Corners1

17Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots12

5On Target6

4Off Target2

0Blocked4

5Inside Box4

4Outside Box8

Passing

46%Possession54%

381Total Passes440

309Accurate Passes378

81%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1