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Boulogne vs Clermont Foot — Ligue 2 2018

Boulogne
Boulogne
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
F. Diedhiou 86' (pen), 53' (pen)
2/20/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 24Stade de la Libération

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Boulogne32%
×Draw28%
Clermont Foot40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boulogne
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.25

Clermont Foot creates 16% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 93 away

creates per match

Boulogne
1.00
Clermont Foot
0.99

allows per match

Boulogne
1.52
Clermont Foot
1.17

finishing

Boulogne+0.00on par
Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boulogne ↓

Clermont Foot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Boulogne or draw
60%
Boulogne or Clermont Foot
72%
Draw or Clermont Foot
68%

Winning margin

Boulogne wins by 2+
12%
Clermont Foot wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Boulogne 1+ goals
66%
Boulogne 2+ goals
29%
Boulogne 3+ goals
10%
Clermont Foot 1+ goals
71%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
36%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Boulogne (draw refunded)
44%
Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boulogne at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 29 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boulogne attack 1.00 + Clermont Foot defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Clermont Foot attack 0.99 + Boulogne defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Boulogne scores more
32%
level
28%
Clermont Foot scores more
40%

Clermont Foot at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
S. SowClermont FootClermont Foot · D
7.7

Match Events

19'
Demba Thiam
28'
Abdellah Baallal
53'
F. DiedhiouPenalty
65'
N. Fatar← Z. Moco
67'
Noah Fatar
67'
Johan Gastien
72'
G. Capuano← M. Lecolier
73'
V. Burlet← A. Platret
77'
J. Bultel← J. Martin
77'
A. Camblan← E. Cantero
77'
I. Fakili← K. Bamba
79'
Théo Guivarch
86'
F. DiedhiouPenalty
90+5'
Vincent Burlet
90+5'
A. Ackra← J. Gastien

Possession

57%Boulogne

Shots

6Boulogne

Pass accuracy

52%Boulogne

Statistics

BoulogneClermont
Overview
57%Possession43%
6Total Shots9
7Corners4
10Fouls9
Shots
6Total Shots9
1On Target5
2Off Target0
3Blocked4
4Inside Box6
2Outside Box3
Passing
57%Possession43%
417Total Passes330
325Accurate Passes234
78%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls9
3Yellow Cards3
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Boulogne vs Clermont Foot

Clermont Foot beat Boulogne 2-0 in Ligue 2 on February 20, 2026.

Goals: F. Diedhiou (53' pen, 86' pen).

Boulogne controlled possession (57%) and registered 6 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade de la Libération in Boulogne-sur-Mer.