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Clermont Foot vs Amiens — Ligue 2 2018

Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Amiens
Amiens
K. Bamba 90' (pen), 90' (pen)
K. Kaiboue 48'
11/7/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 14Stade Gabriel Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Clermont Foot47%
×Draw27%
Amiens27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clermont Foot
1.42
Amiens
1.00

Clermont Foot creates 42% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 113 away

creates per match

Clermont Foot
1.31
Amiens
0.98

allows per match

Clermont Foot
1.03
Amiens
1.53

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par
Amiens+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Amiens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw
73%
Clermont Foot or Amiens
73%
Draw or Amiens
53%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+
23%
Amiens wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals
76%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
41%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
17%
Amiens 1+ goals
63%
Amiens 2+ goals
26%
Amiens 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
64%
Amiens (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

Amiens away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.53 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.31 + Amiens defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

Amiens attack 0.98 + Clermont Foot defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Clermont Foot scores more
47%
level
27%
Amiens scores more
27%

Clermont Foot at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
K. BambaClermont FootClermont Foot · M
8.9

Match Events

14'
Amine Chabane
41'
Yoann Salmier
41'
Aboubacar Lô
48'
K. Kaiboue
53'
Kylian Kaiboue
59'
Jan Mlakar
66'
A. Said← L. Socka Bongue
67'
C. O. Konate← I. Coulibaly
67'
I. Hamache← J. Mlakar
75'
O. Diop← A. Camblan
76'
Y. Bellache← J. Astic
78'
J. Nduquidi← I. Fofana
79'
R. Lutin← K. Kaiboue
87'
C. Injai← T. Monconduit
87'
A. Appiah← T. Averlant
89'
Coleen Louis
89'
Siaka Bakayoko
90+9'
Abdoul Kader Bamba
90'
K. BambaPenalty
90'
K. BambaPenalty

Possession

65%Clermont

Shots

17Clermont

Pass accuracy

54%Clermont

Statistics

ClermontAmiens
Overview
65%Possession35%
17Total Shots9
11Corners4
12Fouls16
Shots
17Total Shots9
5On Target4
8Off Target4
4Blocked1
10Inside Box6
7Outside Box3
Passing
65%Possession35%
493Total Passes277
422Accurate Passes199
86%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls16
2Yellow Cards6
1Offsides0

Ligue 2: Clermont Foot 2–1 Amiens

Clermont Foot beat Amiens 2-1 in Ligue 2 on November 7, 2025.

Goals: K. Kaiboue (48'), K. Bamba (90' pen, 90' pen).

Clermont Foot controlled possession (65%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade Gabriel Montpied in Clermont-Ferrand.