Amiens 4–3 Clermont Foot: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Amiens

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 2

Clermont Foot

T. Averlant 90'

N. Kandil 39'

A. Lo 32'

A. Leautey 13'

F. Diedhiou 71', 45', 8'

2/9/2026

Ligue 2 · Round 22Stade de la Licorne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Amiens38%

×Draw29%

Clermont Foot32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmiensExpected goals in this matchClermont Foot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.02

Amiens

1.14

Clermont Foot

1.02

Amiens creates 12% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 98 away

1.12

creates per match

0.99

1.05

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Amiens

1.12

Clermont Foot

0.99

allows per match

Amiens

1.05

Clermont Foot

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Amiens+0.00on par

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amiens ↓

Clermont Foot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Amiens or draw

68%

Amiens or Clermont Foot

71%

Draw or Clermont Foot

62%

Winning margin

Amiens wins by 2+

16%

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Amiens 1+ goals

68%

Amiens 2+ goals

32%

Amiens 3+ goals

11%

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

64%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

27%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Amiens (draw refunded)

54%

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amiens at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.05 · 112 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amiens attack 1.12 + Clermont Foot defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.14

Clermont Foot attack 0.99 + Amiens defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Amiens scores more

38%

level

29%

Clermont Foot scores more

32%

Amiens at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Amiens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

F. Diedhiou

Clermont Foot · F

9.5

Match Events

8'

F. Diedhiou↳ E. H. Kone

13'

A. Leautey↳ S. Alvero

23'

Yoan Koré

32'

A. Lo

39'

N. Kandil↳ J. Roussillon

45'

F. Diedhiou↳ K. Bamba

46'

I. Fakili← A. Ackra

58'

Jérôme Roussillon

64'

C. Louis← J. Roussillon

66'

K. Kaiboue← N. Kandil

71'

F. Diedhiou↳ E. H. Kone

73'

V. Nsimba← J. Gastien

78'

M. Tourraine← I. Coulibaly

78'

A. Camblan← F. Diedhiou

81'

Maximiliano Caufriez

82'

Skelly Alvero

82'

Yoann Salmier

85'

J. Nduquidi← S. Alvero

85'

T. Averlant← S. Ntamack

85'

I. Hamache← Y. Kore

87'

S. Sow← K. Bamba

90'

T. Averlant

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmiensClermont

Overview

43%Possession57%

9Total Shots20

7Corners4

13Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots20

6On Target6

2Off Target6

1Blocked8

8Inside Box14

1Outside Box6

Passing

43%Possession57%

347Total Passes474

272Accurate Passes410

78%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls17

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2