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Clan Juvenil vs America de Quito — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

Clan Juvenil
Clan Juvenil
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
America de Quito
America de Quito
9/12/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 31Estadio General Rumiñahui del Valle de Los Chillos (Sangolquí)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Clan Juvenil30%
×Draw28%
America de Quito42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clan Juvenil
1.04
America de Quito
1.27

America de Quito creates 22% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 85 away

creates per match

Clan Juvenil
0.80
America de Quito
1.05

allows per match

Clan Juvenil
1.48
America de Quito
1.28

finishing

Clan Juvenil+0.00on par
America de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clan Juvenil ↓

America de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Clan Juvenil or draw
58%
Clan Juvenil or America de Quito
72%
Draw or America de Quito
70%

Winning margin

Clan Juvenil wins by 2+
11%
America de Quito wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Clan Juvenil 1+ goals
65%
Clan Juvenil 2+ goals
28%
Clan Juvenil 3+ goals
9%
America de Quito 1+ goals
72%
America de Quito 2+ goals
36%
America de Quito 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Clan Juvenil (draw refunded)
42%
America de Quito (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clan Juvenil at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.48 · 40 matches

America de Quito away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.28 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clan Juvenil attack 0.80 + America de Quito defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.04

America de Quito attack 1.05 + Clan Juvenil defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Clan Juvenil scores more
30%
level
28%
America de Quito scores more
42%

America de Quito at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "America de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Clan Juvenil 1–2 America de Quito

America de Quito beat Clan Juvenil 2-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on September 12, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio General Rumiñahui del Valle de Los Chillos (Sangolquí).