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America de Quito vs Clan Juvenil — Liga Pro Serie B 2018

America de Quito
America de Quito
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Clan Juvenil
Clan Juvenil
10/10/2018Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 36Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

America de Quito64%
×Draw22%
Clan Juvenil14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America de Quito
1.85
Clan Juvenil
0.74

America de Quito creates 150% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 40 away

creates per match

America de Quito
1.48
Clan Juvenil
0.65

allows per match

America de Quito
0.84
Clan Juvenil
2.23

finishing

America de Quito+0.00on par
Clan Juvenil+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Quito ↓

Clan Juvenil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

America de Quito or draw
86%
America de Quito or Clan Juvenil
78%
Draw or Clan Juvenil
36%

Winning margin

America de Quito wins by 2+
38%
Clan Juvenil wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

America de Quito 1+ goals
84%
America de Quito 2+ goals
55%
America de Quito 3+ goals
28%
Clan Juvenil 1+ goals
52%
Clan Juvenil 2+ goals
17%
Clan Juvenil 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

America de Quito (draw refunded)
82%
Clan Juvenil (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Quito at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.84 · 85 matches

Clan Juvenil away — creates 0.65, concedes 2.23 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Quito attack 1.48 + Clan Juvenil defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.85

Clan Juvenil attack 0.65 + America de Quito defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

America de Quito scores more
64%
level
22%
Clan Juvenil scores more
14%

America de Quito at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "America de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: America de Quito vs Clan Juvenil

America de Quito beat Clan Juvenil 3-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 10, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito).