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Ciudad Rodrigo vs Atlético Mansillés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Ciudad Rodrigo
Ciudad Rodrigo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Atlético Mansillés
Atlético Mansillés
11/10/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 11Estadio Municipal de Fútbol Francisco Mateos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ciudad Rodrigo35%
×Draw30%
Atlético Mansillés35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad Rodrigo
1.07
Atlético Mansillés
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 35 away

creates per match

Ciudad Rodrigo
1.15
Atlético Mansillés
0.63

allows per match

Ciudad Rodrigo
1.53
Atlético Mansillés
1.00

finishing

Ciudad Rodrigo+0.00on par
Atlético Mansillés+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad Rodrigo ↓

Atlético Mansillés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ciudad Rodrigo or draw
65%
Ciudad Rodrigo or Atlético Mansillés
70%
Draw or Atlético Mansillés
65%

Winning margin

Ciudad Rodrigo wins by 2+
14%
Atlético Mansillés wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ciudad Rodrigo 1+ goals
66%
Ciudad Rodrigo 2+ goals
29%
Ciudad Rodrigo 3+ goals
9%
Atlético Mansillés 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Mansillés 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Mansillés 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ciudad Rodrigo (draw refunded)
50%
Atlético Mansillés (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad Rodrigo at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

Atlético Mansillés away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad Rodrigo attack 1.15 + Atlético Mansillés defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Atlético Mansillés attack 0.63 + Ciudad Rodrigo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Ciudad Rodrigo scores more
35%
level
30%
Atlético Mansillés scores more
35%

Ciudad Rodrigo at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Ciudad Rodrigo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ciudad Rodrigo vs Atlético Mansillés

Ciudad Rodrigo beat Atlético Mansillés 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Fútbol Francisco Mateos in Salamanca.