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Atlético Mansillés vs Ciudad Rodrigo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Mansillés
Atlético Mansillés
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ciudad Rodrigo
Ciudad Rodrigo
3/29/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 30Campo de Fútbol de Mansilla de las Mulas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Atlético Mansillés57%
×Draw24%
Ciudad Rodrigo18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Mansillés
1.65
Ciudad Rodrigo
0.81

Atlético Mansillés creates 104% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 34 away

creates per match

Atlético Mansillés
1.29
Ciudad Rodrigo
0.74

allows per match

Atlético Mansillés
0.89
Ciudad Rodrigo
2.00

finishing

Atlético Mansillés+0.00on par
Ciudad Rodrigo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mansillés ↓

Ciudad Rodrigo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Mansillés or draw
82%
Atlético Mansillés or Ciudad Rodrigo
76%
Draw or Ciudad Rodrigo
43%

Winning margin

Atlético Mansillés wins by 2+
31%
Ciudad Rodrigo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlético Mansillés 1+ goals
81%
Atlético Mansillés 2+ goals
49%
Atlético Mansillés 3+ goals
23%
Ciudad Rodrigo 1+ goals
56%
Ciudad Rodrigo 2+ goals
19%
Ciudad Rodrigo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mansillés (draw refunded)
76%
Ciudad Rodrigo (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mansillés at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.89 · 35 matches

Ciudad Rodrigo away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mansillés attack 1.29 + Ciudad Rodrigo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Ciudad Rodrigo attack 0.74 + Atlético Mansillés defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atlético Mansillés scores more
57%
level
24%
Ciudad Rodrigo scores more
18%

Atlético Mansillés at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atlético Mansillés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Mansillés vs Ciudad Rodrigo

Atlético Mansillés and Ciudad Rodrigo drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol de Mansilla de las Mulas in Mansilla de las Mulas.