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Ciudad de Lucena vs La Palma — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ciudad de Lucena
Ciudad de Lucena
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
La Palma
La Palma
Michael Conejero 60'
Nacho Fernández 57'
Juan Delgado 45'
1/10/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 11Estadio Ciudad de Lucena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Ciudad de Lucena63%
×Draw23%
La Palma15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Lucena
1.78
La Palma
0.72

Ciudad de Lucena creates 147% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 48 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Lucena
1.89
La Palma
0.88

allows per match

Ciudad de Lucena
0.56
La Palma
1.67

finishing

Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par
La Palma+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Lucena ↓

La Palma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ciudad de Lucena or draw
85%
Ciudad de Lucena or La Palma
77%
Draw or La Palma
37%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+
36%
La Palma wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals
83%
Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals
53%
Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals
26%
La Palma 1+ goals
51%
La Palma 2+ goals
16%
La Palma 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)
81%
La Palma (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Lucena at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.56 · 109 matches

La Palma away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.89 + La Palma defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

La Palma attack 0.88 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Ciudad de Lucena scores more
63%
level
23%
La Palma scores more
15%

Ciudad de Lucena at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Ciudad de Lucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
Juan Delgado
46'
Pablo Molina← Zurdo
57'
Nacho Fernández
60'
Michael Conejero
62'
Antonio Pérez← L. Pierce
65'
Segura← Manu Cruzado
65'
Galleti← Pirri
68'
Guille Roldán← Nacho Fernández
68'
Maero← Juan Delgado
82'
Jaime Roales← Manu Calle
83'
Pepe Antrás← Michael Conejero
88'
Manuel Corrales← Mazin
Ciudad
La
Juan Corrales
Corrales
Diego Domínguez
Domínguez
Carlos Martínez
Martínez
Juan Aguilar
Aguilar
Pirri
▼
Pirri
Alberto Sánchez
Sánchez
Manu Calle
▼
Calle
Paco
Paco
Alvarito
Alvarito
Manu Cruzado
▼
Cruzado
Mazin
▼
Mazin
Adri Escalera
Escalera
Marcos Pérez
Pérez
Zurdo
▼
Zurdo
L. Pierce
▼
Pierce
Álvaro Pérez
Pérez
Víctor Morillo
Morillo
Michael Conejero
⚽
▼
Conejero
Adrián Ruiz
Ruiz
Mario
Mario
Juan Delgado
⚽
▼
Delgado
Nacho Fernández
⚽
▼
Fernández
Dimas Carrasco
Manager: Dimas Carrasco
46'▲Pablo Molina←▼Zurdo
62'▲Antonio Pérez←▼L. Pierce
68'▲Guille Roldán←▼Nacho Fernández
68'▲Maero←▼Juan Delgado
83'▲Pepe Antrás←▼Michael Conejero

Ciudad de Lucena substitutes

MolinaPérezRoldánMaeroAntrás
Mario Rodriguez
Manager: Mario Rodriguez
65'▲Segura←▼Manu Cruzado
65'▲Galleti←▼Pirri
82'▲Jaime Roales←▼Manu Calle
88'▲Manuel Corrales←▼Mazin

La Palma substitutes

SeguraGalletiRoalesCorrales

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Ciudad de Lucena 3–0 La Palma

Ciudad de Lucena beat La Palma 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 10, 2021.

Goals: Juan Delgado (45'), Nacho Fernández (57'), Michael Conejero (60').

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lucena in Lucena.