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Ciudad de Lucena vs Ceuta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ciudad de Lucena
Ciudad de Lucena
CANC
00:00
Ceuta
Ceuta
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 31Estadio Ciudad de Lucena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ciudad de Lucena46%
×Draw29%
Ceuta25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Lucena
1.24
Ceuta
0.84

Ciudad de Lucena creates 48% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Lucena
1.89
Ceuta
1.13

allows per match

Ciudad de Lucena
0.56
Ceuta
0.60

finishing

Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par
Ceuta+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Lucena ↓

Ceuta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ciudad de Lucena or draw
75%
Ciudad de Lucena or Ceuta
71%
Draw or Ceuta
54%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+
20%
Ceuta wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals
71%
Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals
35%
Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals
13%
Ceuta 1+ goals
57%
Ceuta 2+ goals
21%
Ceuta 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)
64%
Ceuta (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Lucena at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.56 · 109 matches

Ceuta away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.89 + Ceuta defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.24

Ceuta attack 1.13 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ciudad de Lucena scores more
46%
level
29%
Ceuta scores more
25%

Ciudad de Lucena at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ciudad de Lucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ciudad de Lucena face Ceuta (Tercera División RFEF - Group 10)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 returns with Ciudad de Lucena hosting Ceuta. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ciudad de Lucena host Ceuta at Estadio Ciudad de Lucena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.