Ceuta 1–0 Ciudad de Lucena: Result & Stats

Ceuta

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ciudad de Lucena

Willy 90+6'

11/3/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 12Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ceuta53%

×Draw25%

Ciudad de Lucena22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CeutaExpected goals in this matchCiudad de Lucena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.97

Ceuta

1.65

Ciudad de Lucena

0.97

Ceuta creates 70% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 110 away

2.40

creates per match

1.06

0.87

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Ceuta

2.40

Ciudad de Lucena

1.06

allows per match

Ceuta

0.87

Ciudad de Lucena

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceuta+0.00on par

Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceuta ↓

Ciudad de Lucena →

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ceuta or draw

78%

Ceuta or Ciudad de Lucena

75%

Draw or Ciudad de Lucena

47%

Winning margin

Ceuta wins by 2+

29%

Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+

Team goals

Ceuta 1+ goals

81%

Ceuta 2+ goals

49%

Ceuta 3+ goals

23%

Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals

62%

Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals

25%

Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ceuta (draw refunded)

71%

Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ceuta at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Ciudad de Lucena away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ceuta attack 2.40 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.65

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.06 + Ceuta defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ceuta scores more

53%

level

25%

Ciudad de Lucena scores more

22%

Ceuta at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ceuta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

Álex Caramelo← Luismi Redondo

58'

Jesús González← José Morales

62'

Chico← Ismael César

74'

Cristo← Nané García

75'

Sergi Valls← Erik

79'

Willy← Julio

90+6'

Willy

Ceuta

Ciudad

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: José Juan Romero

62'▲Chico←▼Ismael César

74'▲Cristo←▼Nané García

79'▲Willy←▼Julio

Ceuta substitutes

ChicoCristoWilly

Manager: Dimas Carrasco

54'▲Álex Caramelo←▼Luismi Redondo

58'▲Jesús González←▼José Morales

75'▲Sergi Valls←▼Erik

Ciudad de Lucena substitutes

CarameloGonzálezValls

Match Recap: Ceuta vs Ciudad de Lucena

Ceuta beat Ciudad de Lucena 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 3, 2019.

Goals: Willy (90+6').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in Ceuta.

Ceuta vs Ciudad de Lucena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ceuta vs Ciudad de Lucena