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Ciudad de Lucena vs Atlético Espeleño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Ciudad de Lucena
Ciudad de Lucena
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Espeleño
Atlético Espeleño
3/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 27Estadio Ciudad de Lucena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Ciudad de Lucena65%
×Draw21%
Atlético Espeleño14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ciudad de Lucena
1.90
Atlético Espeleño
0.74

Ciudad de Lucena creates 157% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 49 away

creates per match

Ciudad de Lucena
1.89
Atlético Espeleño
0.92

allows per match

Ciudad de Lucena
0.56
Atlético Espeleño
1.90

finishing

Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par
Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Lucena ↓

Atlético Espeleño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ciudad de Lucena or draw
86%
Ciudad de Lucena or Atlético Espeleño
79%
Draw or Atlético Espeleño
35%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+
39%
Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals
85%
Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals
56%
Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals
29%
Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals
52%
Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals
17%
Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)
82%
Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Lucena at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.56 · 109 matches

Atlético Espeleño away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.90 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.89 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.90

Atlético Espeleño attack 0.92 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ciudad de Lucena scores more
65%
level
21%
Atlético Espeleño scores more
14%

Ciudad de Lucena at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ciudad de Lucena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ciudad de Lucena vs Atlético Espeleño

Ciudad de Lucena beat Atlético Espeleño 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lucena in Lucena.