Atlético Espeleño 2–3 Ciudad de Lucena

Atlético Espeleño

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Ciudad de Lucena

12/2/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 13Campo de Fútbol Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Atlético Espeleño36%

×Draw29%

Ciudad de Lucena35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético EspeleñoExpected goals in this matchCiudad de Lucena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.11

Atlético Espeleño

1.13

Ciudad de Lucena

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 110 away

1.35

creates per match

1.06

1.16

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Atlético Espeleño

1.35

Ciudad de Lucena

1.06

allows per match

Atlético Espeleño

1.16

Ciudad de Lucena

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Espeleño+0.00on par

Ciudad de Lucena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Espeleño ↓

Ciudad de Lucena →

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Atlético Espeleño or draw

65%

Atlético Espeleño or Ciudad de Lucena

71%

Draw or Ciudad de Lucena

64%

Winning margin

Atlético Espeleño wins by 2+

15%

Ciudad de Lucena wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Atlético Espeleño 1+ goals

68%

Atlético Espeleño 2+ goals

31%

Atlético Espeleño 3+ goals

11%

Ciudad de Lucena 1+ goals

67%

Ciudad de Lucena 2+ goals

30%

Ciudad de Lucena 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Espeleño (draw refunded)

51%

Ciudad de Lucena (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Espeleño at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.16 · 49 matches

Ciudad de Lucena away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Espeleño attack 1.35 + Ciudad de Lucena defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.13

Ciudad de Lucena attack 1.06 + Atlético Espeleño defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Atlético Espeleño scores more

36%

level

29%

Ciudad de Lucena scores more

35%

Atlético Espeleño at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Atlético Espeleño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlético Espeleño vs Ciudad de Lucena

Ciudad de Lucena beat Atlético Espeleño 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Municipal in Espiel.

Atlético Espeleño vs Ciudad de Lucena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Espeleño vs Ciudad de Lucena