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City London vs Cambé — League #1138 2026

City London
City London
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cambé
Cambé
10/1/2025League #1138League #1138 · Round 4Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

City London58%
×Draw26%
Cambé16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

City London
1.54
Cambé
0.67

City London creates 130% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

City London
1.33
Cambé
1.00

allows per match

City London
0.33
Cambé
1.75

finishing

City London+0.00on par
Cambé+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

City London ↓

Cambé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

City London or draw
84%
City London or Cambé
74%
Draw or Cambé
42%

Winning margin

City London wins by 2+
31%
Cambé wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

City London 1+ goals
79%
City London 2+ goals
45%
City London 3+ goals
20%
Cambé 1+ goals
49%
Cambé 2+ goals
15%
Cambé 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

City London (draw refunded)
78%
Cambé (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

City London at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Cambé away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

City London attack 1.33 + Cambé defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Cambé attack 1.00 + City London defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

City London scores more
58%
level
26%
Cambé scores more
16%

City London at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "City London will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: City London vs Cambé

City London beat Cambé 1-0 in League #1138 on October 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff in Londrina, Paraná.