Cambé 1–1 City London: Result & Stats

Cambé

FT

1 – 1

City London

9/7/2025

League #1138 · Round 2Estádio José Garbelini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cambé37%

×Draw32%

City London31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CambéExpected goals in this matchCity London

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.88

Cambé

1.00

City London

0.88

Cambé creates 14% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

0.75

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Cambé

1.00

City London

1.00

allows per match

Cambé

0.75

City London

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambé+0.00on par

City London+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambé ↓

City London →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Cambé or draw

69%

Cambé or City London

68%

Draw or City London

63%

Winning margin

Cambé wins by 2+

14%

City London wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cambé 1+ goals

63%

Cambé 2+ goals

26%

Cambé 3+ goals

8%

City London 1+ goals

59%

City London 2+ goals

22%

City London 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cambé (draw refunded)

55%

City London (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambé at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

City London away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambé attack 1.00 + City London defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

City London attack 1.00 + Cambé defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cambé scores more

37%

level

32%

City London scores more

31%

Cambé at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cambé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff