Cittadella 0–2 Cesena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Cittadella

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Cesena

C. Shpendi 67' (pen)

S. Bastoni 60'

11/10/2024

Serie B · Round 13Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Cittadella44%

×Draw28%

Cesena29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CittadellaExpected goals in this matchCesena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.01

Cittadella

1.32

Cesena

1.01

Cittadella creates 31% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 39 away

1.27

creates per match

0.92

1.10

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Cittadella

1.27

Cesena

0.92

allows per match

Cittadella

1.10

Cesena

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cittadella+0.00on par

Cesena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cittadella ↓

Cesena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Cittadella or draw

71%

Cittadella or Cesena

72%

Draw or Cesena

56%

Winning margin

Cittadella wins by 2+

20%

Cesena wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cittadella 1+ goals

73%

Cittadella 2+ goals

38%

Cittadella 3+ goals

15%

Cesena 1+ goals

64%

Cesena 2+ goals

27%

Cesena 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cittadella (draw refunded)

60%

Cesena (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cittadella at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Cesena away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.38 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cittadella attack 1.27 + Cesena defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.32

Cesena attack 0.92 + Cittadella defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cittadella scores more

44%

level

28%

Cesena scores more

29%

Cittadella at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cittadella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

G. Prestia

Cesena · D

7.9

Match Events

32'

Andrea Ciofi

60'

S. Bastoni↳ G. Calò

65'

Alessandro Salvi

67'

C. ShpendiPenalty

68'

M. Ravasio← S. Rabbi

68'

C. Cassano← S. Branca

69'

S. Pieraccini← A. Ciofi

79'

Cristian ShpendiGoal cancelled

80'

S. Hraiech← E. Adamo

80'

J. Ceesay← S. Bastoni

84'

D. Voltan← S. Tronchin

86'

A. Rizza← E. Masciangelo

86'

M. Francesconi← T. Berti

86'

E. Tavşan← C. Shpendi

88'

Alessandro Salvi

88'

Alessandro Salvi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CittadellaCesena

Overview

46%Possession54%

8Total Shots18

2Corners6

19Fouls13

Shots

8Total Shots18

2On Target10

3Off Target5

3Blocked3

3Inside Box13

5Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

405Total Passes482

331Accurate Passes407

82%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Serie B: Cittadella 0–2 Cesena

Cesena beat Cittadella 2-0 in Serie B on November 10, 2024.

Goals: S. Bastoni (60'), C. Shpendi (67' pen).

Cesena controlled possession (54%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato in Cittadella.

Cittadella vs Cesena — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Cittadella 0–2 Cesena