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Cesena vs Cittadella — Serie B 2018

Cesena
Cesena
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cittadella
Cittadella
1/12/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 21Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Cesena41%
×Draw27%
Cittadella31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesena
1.31
Cittadella
1.11

Cesena creates 18% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 134 away

creates per match

Cesena
1.44
Cittadella
0.92

allows per match

Cesena
1.31
Cittadella
1.19

finishing

Cesena+0.00on par
Cittadella+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Cittadella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cesena or draw
69%
Cesena or Cittadella
73%
Draw or Cittadella
59%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+
19%
Cittadella wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals
73%
Cesena 2+ goals
38%
Cesena 3+ goals
14%
Cittadella 1+ goals
67%
Cittadella 2+ goals
30%
Cittadella 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)
57%
Cittadella (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 39 matches

Cittadella away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.44 + Cittadella defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cittadella attack 0.92 + Cesena defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Cesena scores more
41%
level
27%
Cittadella scores more
31%

Cesena at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Cesena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
N. PavanCittadellaCittadella · D
8.2

Match Events

15'
Giacomo Calò
22'
Massimiliano Mangraviti
52'
Simone Branca
61'
E. Tavşan← A. Kargbo
61'
A. La Gumina← T. Berti
66'
J. Ceesay← E. Adamo
69'
A. Tessiore← S. Tronchin
80'
M. Antonucci← C. Shpendi
81'
L. Mendicino← G. Calò
82'
S. Rabbi← F. Amatucci
85'
Leonardo Mendicino
90+3'
M. Ravasio← L. Pandolfi

Possession

56%Cesena

Shots

10Cesena

Pass accuracy

52%Cesena

Statistics

CesenaCittadella
Overview
56%Possession44%
10Total Shots7
5Corners2
12Fouls11
Shots
10Total Shots7
3On Target4
6Off Target2
1Blocked1
7Inside Box7
3Outside Box0
Passing
56%Possession44%
544Total Passes431
433Accurate Passes325
80%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Cesena vs Cittadella

Cesena and Cittadella drew 0-0 in Serie B on January 12, 2025.

Cesena controlled possession (56%) and registered 10 shots to 7.

The match was played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.