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Cienciano vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2018

Cienciano
Cienciano
Preview
20:00
UTC Cajamarca
UTC Cajamarca
10/17/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 12Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega
Big match
55%
Cienciano
model favours
55%24%21%

UTC Cajamarca score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cienciano55%
×Draw24%
UTC Cajamarca21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cienciano
1.71
UTC Cajamarca
0.94

Cienciano creates 82% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Cienciano
1.99
UTC Cajamarca
0.89

allows per match

Cienciano
0.98
UTC Cajamarca
1.44

finishing

Cienciano+0.21scores more
UTC Cajamarca-0.34scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

UTC Cajamarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw
79%
Cienciano or UTC Cajamarca
76%
Draw or UTC Cajamarca
45%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+
31%
UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals
82%
Cienciano 2+ goals
51%
Cienciano 3+ goals
24%
UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals
61%
UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals
24%
UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)
73%
UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.98 · 5 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.44 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 1.99 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.71

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.89 + Cienciano defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Cienciano scores more
55%
level
24%
UTC Cajamarca scores more
21%

Cienciano at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Cienciano score first in only 23% of matches
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • Cienciano sit 3, UTC Cajamarca 13 in the table
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.7 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Cienciano
Attack-heavy
UTC Cajamarca
Balanced
54%Possession47%
77%Pass accuracy75%
15.7Shots12.2
1.88xGBiggest gap1.03
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
CiencianoUTC Cajamarca

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Cienciano
4
Draws
2
UTC Cajamarca
Avg goals: 3.7BTTS: 80%
2–22–06–12–11–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Cienciano
LWWWW
Cajamarca
WWDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cienciano face UTC Cajamarca (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Cienciano hosting UTC Cajamarca. Match starts October 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Cienciano host UTC Cajamarca at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.