Cienciano 1–0 UTC Cajamarca: Result & Stats

Cienciano

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

UTC Cajamarca

3/12/2021

Primera División · Apertura - 1Sports Complex Videna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cienciano55%

×Draw24%

UTC Cajamarca21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CiencianoExpected goals in this matchUTC Cajamarca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.94

Cienciano

1.71

UTC Cajamarca

0.94

Cienciano creates 82% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

1.99

creates per match

0.89

0.98

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Cienciano

1.99

UTC Cajamarca

0.89

allows per match

Cienciano

0.98

UTC Cajamarca

1.44

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Cienciano+0.21scores more

UTC Cajamarca-0.34scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

UTC Cajamarca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw

79%

Cienciano or UTC Cajamarca

76%

Draw or UTC Cajamarca

45%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+

31%

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals

82%

Cienciano 2+ goals

51%

Cienciano 3+ goals

24%

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

61%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

24%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)

73%

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.98 · 5 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.44 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 1.99 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.71

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.89 + Cienciano defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Cienciano scores more

55%

level

24%

UTC Cajamarca scores more

21%

Cienciano at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff