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Cienciano vs Carlos A. Mannucci — Primera División 2026

Cienciano
Cienciano
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Carlos A. Mannucci
Carlos A. Mannucci
3/4/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 6Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Cienciano51%
×Draw24%
Carlos A. Mannucci25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cienciano
1.70
Carlos A. Mannucci
1.10

Cienciano creates 55% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 95 away

creates per match

Cienciano
1.81
Carlos A. Mannucci
1.16

allows per match

Cienciano
1.04
Carlos A. Mannucci
1.59

finishing

Cienciano+0.00on par
Carlos A. Mannucci+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cienciano ↓

Carlos A. Mannucci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cienciano or draw
75%
Cienciano or Carlos A. Mannucci
76%
Draw or Carlos A. Mannucci
49%

Winning margin

Cienciano wins by 2+
28%
Carlos A. Mannucci wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Cienciano 1+ goals
82%
Cienciano 2+ goals
51%
Cienciano 3+ goals
24%
Carlos A. Mannucci 1+ goals
67%
Carlos A. Mannucci 2+ goals
30%
Carlos A. Mannucci 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cienciano (draw refunded)
68%
Carlos A. Mannucci (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cienciano at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.04 · 107 matches

Carlos A. Mannucci away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.59 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cienciano attack 1.81 + Carlos A. Mannucci defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.70

Carlos A. Mannucci attack 1.16 + Cienciano defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Cienciano scores more
51%
level
24%
Carlos A. Mannucci scores more
25%

Cienciano at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Cienciano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Cienciano 2–2 Carlos A. Mannucci

Cienciano and Carlos A. Mannucci drew 2-2 in Primera División on March 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco.